Thursday, June 26, 2008

Taking Stock: Confirmation

Today definitely confirms that we are going to have a major correction
and/or selloff in the market, with the major indices falling through
support. I am proud to say that I have som stocks that have been in an
uptrend through the market selling off. I sold anything and everything
that has, or had in the previous selloff, any kind of weakness or
downtrend (HSC, AXYS, BEAV, BUCY). I'll buy them back when the overall
market bottoms out, which can be difficult to determine.

I have noticed that some of the macroeconomic indicators have been
showing some promise. I have noticed the pending home sales have
increased, along with the existing home sales. So, it seems as though
houses are getting affordable enough for them to be bought. There is
still a belief that houses will continue to get cheaper. I really do
not think that the FOMC will raise interest rates until at least the
housing market is safely out of trouble.

I still have gold via Yamana Gold (AUY) and dry bulk shipping in
DryShips (DRYS). Some of the names that are on my watch list are ADM,
MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR), along with what I just sold.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

Close To Breaking Support

I have noticed that the major market indices have been in a downtrend
in the past few months. It doesn't always necessarily matter that the
overall market goes down, because the stock(s) that you buy of the
companies that you are invested in may or may not follow suit.
Although, with days like today in a broad market selloff, you have to
take heed and pay attention to what is going on. As of the past week
or two, the indices (DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500) have come within range of
breaking through support levels, and ultimately going much lower. I
learned from January what happens when that happens, and we have an
enduring broad market sell-a-thon, and I am subsequently taking heed
this time. I see it as a possible opportunity to make up for lost
ground resulting from January. I was hearing in the news about
something to the effect of "DOW breaks the key 12,000 mark". I think
that is slightly skewed, considering that the DJIA was down to around
11,600-11,700 n March. It could go either way at this point.

In regards to the overall economy, at least at this point, we are only
experiencing a period of slow growth. Granted, oil has quickly gone to
much higher prices, but it will ultimately go even higher. People are
just going to have to learn to adjust and conserve. I am very glad to
see and hear that Chinese officials are raising the price of gasoline
in China. That will ease some pressure on gasoline and oil prices, but
I am not sure how long that will take. I get the feeling that there
has been a level of expectation for either one or both MBIA and Ambac
to go under, so the market isn't necessarily surprised by it.
Apparently all of the sub-prime mortgage woes have yet to be worked
out of the financial system.

I noticed some common characteristics in the charts of some of the
stocks that I am invested in. For instance, both Ultra Petroleum (UPL)
and Bucyrus (BUCY) ended up touching their 200DMA at the end of the
January selloff, and I'll have to check some of the others. Those, for
example, sold off today with less than average volume, so I am not
concerned about positions like those. Since the market could go either
way, what I'll do is put in some stop orders in positions like those
at or slightly above their 50DMA in order cover myself. Then, if there
is indeed a selloff, I can let it run and buy back in near the 200DMA.