Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Taking Stock: I Saw What I Was Looking For

I saw what I have been looking for today, I definitely need to put in some more fairly tight stops, and start adding a position to SDS, on the likelihood of a downswing in the broad market. I want to be making a few more dollars on the downswing.

Every one of the stop-loss orders that I put in before the market open on monday morning were blown through in grand fashion. So, I am glad that I was looking at the pre-market monday morning on the premonition of a possible change in course of the market. I'll expound on how I started to notice that at a later date.

There was a small bounce in the S&P-500 today, but I think it was only because of the broad sell-off from yesterday. The S&P-500 closed below the 200SMA and the 50SMA today.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Taking Stock: I'm Glad!!

I have been observing different developments and events in the market lately, and was having a very bad feeling about what could possibly be happening this week. Several of my positions were at a sort of undecided crossroad, so I did my due diligence this morning before the opening bell and put in several stop-loss orders. Most of those orders were in precious metals, oil, and natural gas related positions.

It looks as though they were all more than triggered this morning, and I will probobly be setting some more. Over the next day or so, I'll be watching to see if it will be a good time to take a position in SDS.

I'm willing to bet that a part of the FOMC presentation this week will contain, implied or otherwise, something to the effect of 'There is no threat of inflation'. So, it was definitely a little past due to bail out of gold and other inflation related positions for a little while.

I'll also be keeping my eye on the Dollar Index (DXY0) in the near future, and waiting to see what the broad market is going to do.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Taking Stock: I Found It

I found something that I have been trying to find, the Cumulative Volume Index. It can be found in the FreeStockCharts.com webpage, listed as T2104.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Taking Stock: When you wish ...

It appears as though the inevitable is finally coming true. First and foremost, the dollar is falling, and Boeing is also finally in production of the 787 Dreamliners. The past few days, the dollar has managed a sort of "dead cat bounce" rally to the now downtrending 20DMA, which the inverse is true for precious metals.

I have also been thinking lately about how much the degree of technical analysis has helped me the past few months, which is a remarkable amount.

I have been busy making a handfull of trades the past few months, to compliment my other positions and to keep the rent paid. My CME trade has been working out quite nicely, and I think my Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) trade will come to fruition soon enough.

Consensus is that the longer term rally is the broad market will eventually cease to sustain. Only the market wil tell, which is when I will be interested in loading up on some of the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS). Nothing is safe from a broad-based selloff (fortunately, I have learned that lesson now). What I am anticipating, by accord of the consensus view, is that the market will fall almost to the March lows. I won't hold SDS all the way to that point, though. Another part of the consensus view is that the market will continue to rally for the time being, simply because there are some latecomers just getting back into the market.

Something that I was reading in one of Dr. Leeb's "Market Updates" is that he views the rally as being driven by systemic mechanisms, and he noted his analysis of that everything has been rallying is virtual unision (Dan Fitzpatrick noted something very similar in one of his videos). I'm looking for the DJIA to go up to around 10,000-10,500, simply because it is a round number (it has more psychological significance than you might think). Also, that is where the 200DMA was when the deflationary period started. By virtue of simple logic (overly simplified?), is that all of the "Monopoly Money" was deemed to be worth much less than what it was originally valued at, causing a deflationary period, and now that money isbeing replaced by the graces of the US Government and taxpayers.