Sunday, April 27, 2008

Taking Stock

I'm going to be keeping my eye on Yamana Gold (AUY) now, because it
trades virtually in lockstep with the gold futures index. At the high, when gold futures were ~$1K/oz., Yamana was trading at around $19 per share. It is now down at around $13 per share. Gold, with interest rates low and inflation running incredibly high, gold will not stay at the levels that they are at now. Yamana, and the gold futures, will go back to the levels that they were at. The chart looks good for some upside soon, partially because the slow stochastics are indicating that the shares are oversold.

Simple math:
19 - 13 = $6 potential upside
6/13 = 46% potential profit, possibly more

I sold my MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR), because they reported a quarter with negative earnings. I'll keep my eye out on that on also, because the business that they are in is still a good one to be in. Over the next few days, I'll see what the price action does and if it starts a negative trend. I keep hearing from people that have more experience than me, that WFR is done, and/or is a good short sale.

I'll admit that I was shaken out of DryShips (DRYS) for a point or two, but I am back in and as confident with it as ever. I was a little worried about it a week or two ago, when it appeared to be starting a negative trend, and looked as though the 50 and 200 day moving averages were about to make a bearish cross. I consequently put in a GTC (Good 'Til Cancelled) stop-limit order to cover the possible downside, which ended up being executed because of the $5 intraday price movement it had. Once everything was in the clear, I put in my limit order for $83 per share. I picked my two quibbles back up, and it closed at $83.98. Now, I would like nothing more than to see it break resistance and go to par ($100).

I still like CommScope (CTV), because they are involved with communications infrastructure. They acquired Andrews Wireless a few months ago, and the stock price has been in a downtrend ever since the internal costs of the acquisition were weighing down on the earnings. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens after they report earnings next week. During the past week or two, the stock has been putting in higher highs and higher lows, so I put in a GTC limit order for another quibble at about $40 per share. I had trimmed my shares back because of the downtrend.

I'm very excited about Hexcel (HXL), because they had a fantastic quarter. Now, it would be nice if both Airbus and Boeing would get their act together in getting into production with the A380 and the 787, respectively. I was very happy to see in their annual report that more and more portions of aircraft are being constructed out of composite materials. Also, in their Q1 conference call, they indicated that some aircraft are being retrofitted with composite replacement parts. My limit order is in for 1.5 quibbles at $22.50. I had a limit order in for $19.50, but I don't think I will get that now because of the earnings report.

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