Monday, November 24, 2008

Taking Stock: My Wish Come True?

Am I finally going to get my wish, and the Dollar will drop like it should be dropping? I'm very well aware of all of the deleveraging going on, and being the primary cause of the dollar index climbing, but we also have the Fed and Treasury persistently printing money. First Fannie and Freddie, then AIG, then TARP, and now Citigroup.

We have been having a very nice bull run in the price of gold! Finally! I love it!

The bad part of gold moving higher is that NovaGold took a massive dump this morning. They are having some issues with financing and meeting the conditions of their permit. I still have Yamana Gold (AUY) to take advantage of the run in gold.

The elections are being held in Venezuela, and I would like nothing more than to see Hugo Chavez ousted from office. Maybe they will elect a leader that is capable and willing to grant that gold mining permit that I have been anxiously waiting for. Also, a leader that is not necessarily biased toward going deeply into debt and buying weapons from Russia. It is just my personal opinion. I'm not concerned about politics, but just the permit. Just read some recent news about gold mining in Venezuela as it relates to Crystallex, and you will understand what I am referring to. I am taking the risky and gonadal approach in my interpretation of what will occur regarding that situation. According to Rodolfo Sanz (for some strange reason, I have had dreams of him being asassinated), they are going to start production of the Las Cristinas mine at the beginning of next year. So, we shall see, and the saga continues.

I was looking into the bulk shippers, and they are apparently being faced with the problem of the value(s) of their ships dropping and causing them problems in regards to financing. So, that is my cautionary note on Excel Maritime and Eagle Bulk and their dividend. Ultimately, there needs to be fundamental strength in

I still keep thinking about the economic stimulus package that China came up with, and all of the money that is on the sidelines right now. T-bills are yielding little or nothing now (negative?), and the majority of the risk in stocks is virtually nil. It would be better to park cash in a stock like Intel than to buy Treasuries.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Taking Stock: Wow ...

I think I am stuck in the middle of selling and just hanging in there, but I am just hanging in there for the time being. It seems as though the action in the market has not being driven by anything at all, not news, macroeconomic indicators, or anything else.

Here's what I have been doing lately:

Stare at the screen, shake my head, and ... :-o

We still have all of the fundamental bases upcoming, so I am not extremely worried, but I am still in awe of what is going on. There are still several things that could occur, such as the Dollar dropping (the US Government continues to take on debt and such), the VIX unwinding to low levels, Treasuries selling back off and people getting back in the market, and people coming off of the sidelines with their cash. Also, the price of gold goes up, and the gold mining stocks go down. The stimulus package in China could start to take effect. The market is also over 30% below the 200DMA, which is extreme.

I can't help but wonder...

Is the demand for oil and gasoline really that low? I find it difficult to fathom.

I'm wary of the balance between inflation and deflation also.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Taking Stock: Ta-Da!!

Told ya so!! It went up ... way up!

Dan "The Man" Fitzpatrick!!

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Taking Stock: The Waiting Game

I have been anxiously waiting for the US Dollar to finish its' bull run, and fall to wherever it may end, or maybe even come to an end. Once that happens, gold, other commodities, and the market in general should rally. My understanding is that the next resistance level for the Dollar is around 90, and as today it is 87 plus change.

If you are aware of the "box" that Dan Fitzpatrick refers to, the market is close to the bottom of the box now. Next stop ... UP!! As Dan mentions in his videos, there are usually 3 days down, then the market rallies. So, we shall see where it goes from here. If you notice, the market has just been marking time the past couple of weeks. This time, I'll put in some stop loss orders after it rallies, and wait for the cycle. I just watched Dan "The Man" Fitzpatrick's video for today, and his sentiment is leaning toward a sort of head-fake fall through support tomorrow, so beware. I don't really buy in to the recession taking hold of the market and driving it extremely lower (granted, it could happen), because the way I see it ... the market has already taken into account the now passed possibility of a depression and priced it in.

It is also nice to see the 3-Month LIBOR down to close to 2%.

So, the credit market is virtually unfrozen and the Dollar is likely to start falling soon. I recently read an article that says the market tends to turn around in the middle of a recession. It goes to show that you have to think counterintuitively when you are in the market. I'm still rooting for the bear market rally to the 200DMA.

Just food for thought, the yields for Excel Maritime (EXM) and Eagle Bulk (EGE) are VERY good. Check them out, and see what you think. (19% & 23% is a good incentive for waiting, and recessions are not eternal)

On a side note, I was joking with a friend of mine about gasoline prices. Say, for instance, sometime around last year people would be complaining about the price of gasoline going to $3.00/gal. or so. This year, and recently, people are excited to be paying only $3.00/gal. (which it is less now) of gasoline! Imagine the irony.

Friday, November 7, 2008

I have been busy the past few weeks, digesting what has been occurring in the market and the economy, and essentially learning more new things.

I have been watching Dan Fitzpatrick's videos, and gaining confidence in what he has been saying about the volatility and how to guage the range of movement in the broad market. I realize that I could be trading the volatility, and essentially making a wad of cash in the process. Up until the near future, I have only been doing some mental trading so that I can get a feel for how and when I should be buying and selling shares, and for at what price.

I'm going to wait for the top of the coming rally, then put in some modest stop loss orders, possibly along with some shares of either SH or SDS.