Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Taking Stock: The Waiting Game

I have been anxiously waiting for the US Dollar to finish its' bull run, and fall to wherever it may end, or maybe even come to an end. Once that happens, gold, other commodities, and the market in general should rally. My understanding is that the next resistance level for the Dollar is around 90, and as today it is 87 plus change.

If you are aware of the "box" that Dan Fitzpatrick refers to, the market is close to the bottom of the box now. Next stop ... UP!! As Dan mentions in his videos, there are usually 3 days down, then the market rallies. So, we shall see where it goes from here. If you notice, the market has just been marking time the past couple of weeks. This time, I'll put in some stop loss orders after it rallies, and wait for the cycle. I just watched Dan "The Man" Fitzpatrick's video for today, and his sentiment is leaning toward a sort of head-fake fall through support tomorrow, so beware. I don't really buy in to the recession taking hold of the market and driving it extremely lower (granted, it could happen), because the way I see it ... the market has already taken into account the now passed possibility of a depression and priced it in.

It is also nice to see the 3-Month LIBOR down to close to 2%.

So, the credit market is virtually unfrozen and the Dollar is likely to start falling soon. I recently read an article that says the market tends to turn around in the middle of a recession. It goes to show that you have to think counterintuitively when you are in the market. I'm still rooting for the bear market rally to the 200DMA.

Just food for thought, the yields for Excel Maritime (EXM) and Eagle Bulk (EGE) are VERY good. Check them out, and see what you think. (19% & 23% is a good incentive for waiting, and recessions are not eternal)

On a side note, I was joking with a friend of mine about gasoline prices. Say, for instance, sometime around last year people would be complaining about the price of gasoline going to $3.00/gal. or so. This year, and recently, people are excited to be paying only $3.00/gal. (which it is less now) of gasoline! Imagine the irony.

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