Thursday, July 30, 2009

Taking Stock: Surprises

The market seems to be full of surprises these days. I'll take an upside surprise any day fo the week, though. I was thinking a much bigger pull-back, but maybe not.

Looking through the S&P 400 Midcap index for some trades. Was also looking at GP Strategies (GPX) and American Greetings (AM) for some short-term trades with ATR stops. I'm also watching Hexcel (HXL) for a potential volatility squeeze, like with B/E Aerospace (BEAV), which the two are a part of my longer term positions and are closely related. I was also looking at Covance (CVD) as a possible trade, along with Hospira (HSP).

Just when I thought the volatility squeezes were over, I start seeing more of them.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Taking Sock: Get Back In Sync

I'm trying to get back in sync with what the market is doing. I have to say that the rally really threw me for a bit of a loop. The CVI seems as though it wants to continue to the upside, but only time will tell. I think I bought a little late this time around, so I am looking for the next possible wave\phase up.

I'm seeing bollinger bands "hook" and start to contract on quite a few stocks, so the volatility squeezes are likely to be over soon, if not already. The only positions I have\had are\were plays on volatility squeezes with Average True Range (ATR) stops under them. All I am doing for now is mostly just waiting for the market to pull back, and making some trades with ATR stops under them. I didn't buy back in to any of the precious metals positions that I had, even though the dollar index (DXYO) has been falling. I'm sitting and watching those. They actually seem to still be in somewhat of a downtrend.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Taking Stock: Strategy Shift

Now that I have found a resource for the Cumulative Volume Index (CVI - T2104), I have been putting some thought into things and have a mildly different perspective. I have noticed some things after having found the CVI. That somewhat new perspective from after having found the CVI, I think merits a slight shift in strategy.

The CVI can go in one of three directions: Up, Sideways, or Down.

I noticed that when the CVI was in an uptrend was the timeframe in which I made the most money (I found the CVI after the fact). For example, the beginning of March to the middle of May (you can see the inflection point in the CVI).

While the CVI has been in a sideways trend, the overall market has been weaker and in a sort of mode of indecision. I think a general trend in a specific stock can continue with a sideways CVI, but just need to be more wary of potential weakness.

And, of course, when the CVI is in a downtrend ... I think you get the picture.

I also noticed that when the inflection point in the CVI is when the market started to weaken, and different sectors of the market started to go in different directions. Over the past week or two, I was certain that the broad market would sell off (Dr. Leeb's and Dr. Roubini's opinion gave me confidence), when I could actually have been watching the CVI for confirmation of that (don't ignore Leeb & Roubini, they are very credible). The one thing that I don't know at the moment is as to if one would be pre-emptive of the other. I was thinking of watching Treasuries for an indication of the flow of money, but maybe I could just simply be watching the CVI instead. Watching the Treasury yields still leaves a little bit of guesswork to be done, whereas not as much with the CVI.

It all makes perfect sense, since it is an indicator if the flow of money either into or out of the overall market.

It looks as though there could be another inflection point to the upside forming, but I will give it another day or two to be decisive. I'm very excited to see a possible uptrend in the CVI, because I made quite a bi of money in the last uptrend. It also makes trades come that much easier.

I will definitely be paying more attention to the CVI and those inflection points from now on.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Taking Stock:

The market is likely to drop tomorrow. There seems to be a channel now.

Monday, July 6, 2009

A Thought: Your Health

Emotional health is just as, if not more, important than physical health. I think the two can actually compliment each other. If you take care of yourself physically, you will feel better about yourself and be more emotionally healthy. If you are emotionally healthy, you are much more likely to be inclined to keep yourself physically healthy.

On that note, I have had some other recent experiences that has really put some emphasis on the recognition of the necessity for people, especially women, to at least be comfortable with how they look, if not feel attractive. Sometimes, without that comfort with oneself, it can lead to a long-term sort of negative feedback loop on both their physical and emotional health and well-being.

Friday, July 3, 2009

Taking Stock: The Beginning?

I am looking at adding to my short position, which is in ProShares UltraShort S&P-500(SDS). I've been out of several positions, and happily watching them fall lower (it makes you feel good when you sell a position and it has a dramatic drop afterwards). A few of my other positions look as though they are getting weak, and are ready to fall also, so at a minimum I will put in stop-loss orders if not just sell them outright. I'll use those proceeds to add to my short position.

The next thing I will be watching for is for the broad market to at least start firming up, but probobly for it to start showing signs of climbing again.