Wednesday, December 31, 2008
With that in mind, I actually looked at my account, and thought, "Wow, I still have some cash on the side? Let me fix that ...".
I'm still watching the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) for it to find support in the 50DMA, and then start to move higher. If it does, then Dry Bulk shippers should be a good trade. The BDI is an index of the spot market prices for dry bulk shipping, so dry bulk shipping tends to track the BDI.
I also noticed that oil prices are at least stabilizing, if not starting to move higher. I would like it to be out of sync with precious metals, which it looks as though it will do that.
In a twist of fate, my Axsys Technologies(AXYS) stop loss order did not go through. It is now moving higher.
Monday, December 29, 2008
My new wish, albeit that China is truly back in action, is to see the Baltic Dry Index find support on the 20DMA and start to move higher again. The BDI is the index to watch when trading Dry Bulk shippers, and demand from China can be a definite aid in driving the spot shipping prices higher.
From an armchair perspective, it seems as though gasoline prices have stabilized. I would actually like to see them start to move higher, which they more than likely will soon enough. Like Dan Fitzpatrick mentioned, the price of oil will definitely not go to $0. It is only a matter of time before the price of oil starts to move higher again.
From what I have read, and other observations, the stock market does not wait for the actual economy to turn around, it only waits for the conditions to be in place for it to turn around. From what I see, the stock market has already started to turn.
I'm still heavy in gold and silver, which has been moving higher lately. I'm quite sure that I have mentioned that I added to my gold and silver positions a month or so ago, which I'll trim back soon enough. It looks as though I will get one of the things that I wanted, because my energy stocks are lagging behind precious metals in turning around. I like that, because it will let me trim back precious metals after they have run for a little while, and roll it over to energy.
I still have my position in the infamous Crystallex (KRY). The way I see it, one of two things will happen with that saga:
1.) Crystallex & Rusoro will split the mine
2.) Crystallex & CVG will split the mine
Hugo Chavez has a personal problem with Tejera Paris, a UN Ambassador, having an association with Crystallex. What Hugo wants is for gold mining companies to go to a 50/50 Socialist Joint Venture model, which I am now betting that Crystallex will go along with. I had a feeling that Chavez wanted something, which I figured it was to have someone else operate the mine while he collects a portion of the gold. If Chavez really wanted to kick Crystallex out, then he probobly would have done it by now.
I had to sell my Axsys Technologies (AXYS), since it is breaking down, and I have no idea for as to if it will ever turn around. With energy and other commodities, we are in a multi-year cycle for hard assets. Energy trades with the CRB and the price of oil.
According to Stephen Leeb, and Dan Fitzpatrick has also mentioned it, there is a substantial amount of money sitting on the sidelines in Treasuries and the Stimulus packages. It comes out to being around $4T that could come flowing into the economy.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Transocean (RIG) - the 20DMA has been flattening out
Ultra Petroleum (UPL) - the same condition as Transocean
Yamana Gold (AUY) - trend reversal. It appears to have broken resistance through the 20DMA and has now found support on it as it begins to move higher.
Pan American Silver (PAAS) - the same as Yamana, and quite possibly for NovaGold (NG)
On a somewhat twisted note, depending on your perspective, I am looking forward to when inflation sets in, and commodity prices go higher.
I'm thinking that there will be a rally soon enough, but probobly only a bear market rally.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
I found out what has been driving NovaGold (NG). They apparently are going to be able to make the bridge loan that they were having difficulties with. Now, what I would like to hear, is they get the final permit issued for the Rock Creek mine that they had operational. It is still a potential good trade, but with a good stop loss of course.
It looks as though the Baltic Dry Index is going to go higher. Even if it is not true yet, I'll say it in advance anyway. Welcome back, China. We missed you, at least I did.
Maybe now commodities and the CRB will start to go higher again also.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Somehing that is baffling me, along with several other people, at the moment is just exactly what is going on with NovaGold. Why the rally? I'll keep my eye on that one.
Check out the steel producers index(es) along with the China's stock market indexes. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has also been inching up. Welcome back China?
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Congratulations, and you are welcome. I quite honestly was not really expecting that much of a run to happen so quickly! Wow! I primarily had the yield in mind, and was taking into consideration that the economy (namely China) will turn around soon enough (I was thinking several months from now). For example, DryShips went from ~$4 per share to almost $11 per share.
11/4 = ??
I'm still in the camp of getting a major market rally soon. My first thought when I heard that the NBER had announced that we were in a recession was "Wow, maybe now the market will turn around and go higher for a little while, at least a bear market rally". We shall see.
One of the things that I have noticed with stocks is that the majority of them have a tendency to follow a very similar pattern to the broad market. Not necessarily an exact pattern, but very close. That is probobly why quite a few people trade the S&P 500 indexes rather than individual stocks.
Monday, November 24, 2008
We have been having a very nice bull run in the price of gold! Finally! I love it!
The bad part of gold moving higher is that NovaGold took a massive dump this morning. They are having some issues with financing and meeting the conditions of their permit. I still have Yamana Gold (AUY) to take advantage of the run in gold.
The elections are being held in Venezuela, and I would like nothing more than to see Hugo Chavez ousted from office. Maybe they will elect a leader that is capable and willing to grant that gold mining permit that I have been anxiously waiting for. Also, a leader that is not necessarily biased toward going deeply into debt and buying weapons from Russia. It is just my personal opinion. I'm not concerned about politics, but just the permit. Just read some recent news about gold mining in Venezuela as it relates to Crystallex, and you will understand what I am referring to. I am taking the risky and gonadal approach in my interpretation of what will occur regarding that situation. According to Rodolfo Sanz (for some strange reason, I have had dreams of him being asassinated), they are going to start production of the Las Cristinas mine at the beginning of next year. So, we shall see, and the saga continues.
I was looking into the bulk shippers, and they are apparently being faced with the problem of the value(s) of their ships dropping and causing them problems in regards to financing. So, that is my cautionary note on Excel Maritime and Eagle Bulk and their dividend. Ultimately, there needs to be fundamental strength in
I still keep thinking about the economic stimulus package that China came up with, and all of the money that is on the sidelines right now. T-bills are yielding little or nothing now (negative?), and the majority of the risk in stocks is virtually nil. It would be better to park cash in a stock like Intel than to buy Treasuries.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Here's what I have been doing lately:
Stare at the screen, shake my head, and ... :-o
We still have all of the fundamental bases upcoming, so I am not extremely worried, but I am still in awe of what is going on. There are still several things that could occur, such as the Dollar dropping (the US Government continues to take on debt and such), the VIX unwinding to low levels, Treasuries selling back off and people getting back in the market, and people coming off of the sidelines with their cash. Also, the price of gold goes up, and the gold mining stocks go down. The stimulus package in China could start to take effect. The market is also over 30% below the 200DMA, which is extreme.
I can't help but wonder...
Is the demand for oil and gasoline really that low? I find it difficult to fathom.
I'm wary of the balance between inflation and deflation also.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
If you are aware of the "box" that Dan Fitzpatrick refers to, the market is close to the bottom of the box now. Next stop ... UP!! As Dan mentions in his videos, there are usually 3 days down, then the market rallies. So, we shall see where it goes from here. If you notice, the market has just been marking time the past couple of weeks. This time, I'll put in some stop loss orders after it rallies, and wait for the cycle. I just watched Dan "The Man" Fitzpatrick's video for today, and his sentiment is leaning toward a sort of head-fake fall through support tomorrow, so beware. I don't really buy in to the recession taking hold of the market and driving it extremely lower (granted, it could happen), because the way I see it ... the market has already taken into account the now passed possibility of a depression and priced it in.
It is also nice to see the 3-Month LIBOR down to close to 2%.
So, the credit market is virtually unfrozen and the Dollar is likely to start falling soon. I recently read an article that says the market tends to turn around in the middle of a recession. It goes to show that you have to think counterintuitively when you are in the market. I'm still rooting for the bear market rally to the 200DMA.
Just food for thought, the yields for Excel Maritime (EXM) and Eagle Bulk (EGE) are VERY good. Check them out, and see what you think. (19% & 23% is a good incentive for waiting, and recessions are not eternal)
On a side note, I was joking with a friend of mine about gasoline prices. Say, for instance, sometime around last year people would be complaining about the price of gasoline going to $3.00/gal. or so. This year, and recently, people are excited to be paying only $3.00/gal. (which it is less now) of gasoline! Imagine the irony.
Friday, November 7, 2008
I have been watching Dan Fitzpatrick's videos, and gaining confidence in what he has been saying about the volatility and how to guage the range of movement in the broad market. I realize that I could be trading the volatility, and essentially making a wad of cash in the process. Up until the near future, I have only been doing some mental trading so that I can get a feel for how and when I should be buying and selling shares, and for at what price.
I'm going to wait for the top of the coming rally, then put in some modest stop loss orders, possibly along with some shares of either SH or SDS.
Monday, October 27, 2008
I have learned a TON of things about investing and trading this year!
Trading and investing, while not necessarily difficult, takes time, patience, and plenty of learning. You have to be ready, willing, and motivated to keep learning new things.
One of the things that I have noticed about investing that can be difficult is knowing what to learn and from whom, or even if there is any one set of topics to learn. I think it is something that can prevent people from getting interested and involved.
Granted, I take Jim Cramer with a grain of salt, he can be a good starting point for getting interested in investing and learning more. My problem with Cramer is that he is too erratic. One week he will be for something, and the next he will be against it. He is great for ideas, which is what I use him for, along with a sort of secondary opinion.
-I started learning about and using Technical Analysis indicators earlier this year.
I like quite a few of IBD's list of rules:
I don't like most of Jim Cramer's rules, but there are a few good ones:
1.) Buy damaged stocks, not damaged companies
I have found some of his pointers to be helpful:
1.) "Penny stocks are penny stocks for a reason"
There are a portion of Warren Buffet's guidelines that I like:
1.) Don't buy it if you do not understand it. - If you don't understand the company and what it does, then it will be difficult to follow the story.
I have learned some things from Dan Fitzpatrick, and his pointers are helpful:
1.) "Don't lose your dough"
2.) "Don't be the first one out of the foxhole"
"Buy and Hold" does not necessarily work anymore. You have to trade in order to make money. That is what I used to do. While I luckily did not lose much, I didn't really make much either (financial/credit crisis and deflationary period excluded).
-How to spot, watch, and be patient with trends in a stock
I learned to watch volume, and recognize patterns (flags, pennants, etc.). The price of a stock is not necessarily directly proportionate to the number of buyers. Patterns are not hocus-pocus, but only resultant of something called crowd psychology.
-IBD (William O'Neil) trading signals (2X volume, Confirmation, 200DMA, etc.)
-200DMA rule examples (ADM, BEAV, BUCY, CTV, UPL, RIG)
-Have been made a believer out of the necessity of using T/A
-describe money management
-There will be times in which an event will occur, but you won't realize it until after the stock has sold off considerably
-Find, recognize, and use the opinions of others that know more than you, then use that to learn from.
-When knowledgeable people start yelling "fire!", you should pay attention and investigate further. Having the ability to effectively read and understand balance sheets aids that invesigation.
New Cardinal rules:
-When in a bear market, you should be mostly in cash and only make short-term trades. I realize the difference in how much more I could have made if I had been mostly in cash, and possibly earning interest on that cash.
I already had at least one Cardinal rule, which is to ALWAYS have some cash on the side (10%?), regardless of what kind of state the market is in. There will be times when a stock sells off for an irrational reason, and you will need some cash on the side in order to take advantage of the opportunity.
I'll probobly remember this bear market for the rest of my life.
Things yet to learn, or learn more about:
-Placement and use of Stop Loss and Stop Limits. There is a proper way of placing and using them. I see it as being a form of art-form, and extremely important.
-The Financial System, and associated parts.
-Becoming more savvy at reading & understanding balance sheets. I started a couple of years ago, but never finished. I have found that it even if I don't make cohesive sense of the balance sheet, I can a least glean information and insight from the other portion of the either quarterly or annual report.
Friday, August 8, 2008
done. First, I took a beating from the bear market, then the brutal
sell-a-thon in January, and now the commodities correction. I just
can't seem to win this year! UGH! One of my consolations during this
ordeal is the fact that I have been learning a considerable amount of
new things in the midst of my follies, and now another is that the
overall economy is beginning to improve in some areas (financials &
housing). The upside to the fall in oil prices is that it helps fuel
the economy. Although, cheaper oil is not here to stay. I'm heavily
invested in gold and commodities, but mostly gold because of the high
rate of inflation. Granted, gold has suffered a correction, but
inflation will resume because of low interest rates. I agree with some
of the authors of the articles that I have been reading lately, in
that the FOMC is not going to raise the Fed Funds rate anytime soon,
mostly because it could cause the mortgage rates to increase and
therefore hinder the decrease of housing inventories. In other words,
since gold is a hedge against inflation, gold and other precious
metals are not done going up either. Therefore, I'm weathering the
sell-off and keeping my positions. The Economy is a mess, but I see
hints of a turnaround in things such as the positive GDP and the
increase in home sales. I'm still a firm believer in that we are in
the tail-end of a sort of "soft" recession, and that we would have
been in much more trouble if it had not been for the growth in
emerging markets and namely China. China's economy is having a pause
because the Olympics are being hosted in Beijing, which is likely to
continue growing at a breakneck pace after the games have been
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Saturday, July 19, 2008
here, for multiple reasons:
1. The price of oil has been falling
2. Some of the banks have been stabilizing, such as US Bancorp and
Wells-Fargo reporting good earnings, along with Citigroup
3. IndyMac was taken over by the FDIC (another stabilized bank)
4. The mortgage industry appears to be getting some of their issues
worked out, such as Fannie and Freddie being rescued (roughly 50% of
the mortgage industry)
5. Pending home sales, existing home sales, housing starts, and
building permits have all been rising, along with the mortgage
6. Housing affordabilty is very high now, but housing prices could
still fall a little more.
7. The interest rate cuts by the FOMC should be working their way
through the economy and the banking system.
I'm interested in seeing what the US GDP will do this quarter. The
unemployment rate has not been incredibly high, but it would be nice
to see it come back down. Unemployment insurance claims have come back
below the 400K mark, which is good.
I'm looking forward to earnings season this quarter.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
much as I did last week. There was a broad market selloff today.
I did buy Axsys Technologies (AXYS) back, due to the extremely large
volume turnaround it had on 06/27/08. Hopefully it doesn't start a
downtrend now, which I will find out very soon. To my knowledge,
nothing in the fundamentals of the company has changed.
Some of my other positions sold off today, but I am not incredibly
concerned about them.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
and/or selloff in the market, with the major indices falling through
support. I am proud to say that I have som stocks that have been in an
uptrend through the market selling off. I sold anything and everything
that has, or had in the previous selloff, any kind of weakness or
downtrend (HSC, AXYS, BEAV, BUCY). I'll buy them back when the overall
market bottoms out, which can be difficult to determine.
I have noticed that some of the macroeconomic indicators have been
showing some promise. I have noticed the pending home sales have
increased, along with the existing home sales. So, it seems as though
houses are getting affordable enough for them to be bought. There is
still a belief that houses will continue to get cheaper. I really do
not think that the FOMC will raise interest rates until at least the
housing market is safely out of trouble.
I still have gold via Yamana Gold (AUY) and dry bulk shipping in
DryShips (DRYS). Some of the names that are on my watch list are ADM,
MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR), along with what I just sold.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
in the past few months. It doesn't always necessarily matter that the
overall market goes down, because the stock(s) that you buy of the
companies that you are invested in may or may not follow suit.
Although, with days like today in a broad market selloff, you have to
take heed and pay attention to what is going on. As of the past week
or two, the indices (DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500) have come within range of
breaking through support levels, and ultimately going much lower. I
learned from January what happens when that happens, and we have an
enduring broad market sell-a-thon, and I am subsequently taking heed
this time. I see it as a possible opportunity to make up for lost
ground resulting from January. I was hearing in the news about
something to the effect of "DOW breaks the key 12,000 mark". I think
that is slightly skewed, considering that the DJIA was down to around
11,600-11,700 n March. It could go either way at this point.
In regards to the overall economy, at least at this point, we are only
experiencing a period of slow growth. Granted, oil has quickly gone to
much higher prices, but it will ultimately go even higher. People are
just going to have to learn to adjust and conserve. I am very glad to
see and hear that Chinese officials are raising the price of gasoline
in China. That will ease some pressure on gasoline and oil prices, but
I am not sure how long that will take. I get the feeling that there
has been a level of expectation for either one or both MBIA and Ambac
to go under, so the market isn't necessarily surprised by it.
Apparently all of the sub-prime mortgage woes have yet to be worked
out of the financial system.
I noticed some common characteristics in the charts of some of the
stocks that I am invested in. For instance, both Ultra Petroleum (UPL)
and Bucyrus (BUCY) ended up touching their 200DMA at the end of the
January selloff, and I'll have to check some of the others. Those, for
example, sold off today with less than average volume, so I am not
concerned about positions like those. Since the market could go either
way, what I'll do is put in some stop orders in positions like those
at or slightly above their 50DMA in order cover myself. Then, if there
is indeed a selloff, I can let it run and buy back in near the 200DMA.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
There was some more big movement in Dryships (DRYS) today, but ultimately not a big deal. I don't expect MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR) to go in any kind of an uptrend, but quite the opposite. Most commodities prices dropped today, so quite a few of my positions took a slight beating. Anything in natural gas is a good buy, which my personal favorite is Ultra Petroleum (UPL). It looks as though Ultra is touching the 50DMA, which is a good support level and buy point. I'm loving the after-hours action (+7%) in my favorite communications infrastructure play, CommScope (CTV), due to a good earnings report. I also still like B/E Aerospace (BEAV), which I think will start back on an upwards trend. I'm still keeping my eye out on Yamana Gold (AUY), because of inflation rising and the price of gold has been dropping.
One of the positions that I have is CE Franklin (CFK). Admittedly, I bought it a few years ago when I didn't have a clue for as to what I was doing, so I have no idea for as to why I bought it. oops. Yet now, as it stands, the price of oil is such that it makes extracting oil from oil tar sands profitable. CE Franklin is involved with the sale of petroleum related equipment throughout Alberta, Canada. Alberta is known for the extensive amount of oil tar sands that it has.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
trades virtually in lockstep with the gold futures index. At the high, when gold futures were ~$1K/oz., Yamana was trading at around $19 per share. It is now down at around $13 per share. Gold, with interest rates low and inflation running incredibly high, gold will not stay at the levels that they are at now. Yamana, and the gold futures, will go back to the levels that they were at. The chart looks good for some upside soon, partially because the slow stochastics are indicating that the shares are oversold.
19 - 13 = $6 potential upside
6/13 = 46% potential profit, possibly more
I sold my MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR), because they reported a quarter with negative earnings. I'll keep my eye out on that on also, because the business that they are in is still a good one to be in. Over the next few days, I'll see what the price action does and if it starts a negative trend. I keep hearing from people that have more experience than me, that WFR is done, and/or is a good short sale.
I'll admit that I was shaken out of DryShips (DRYS) for a point or two, but I am back in and as confident with it as ever. I was a little worried about it a week or two ago, when it appeared to be starting a negative trend, and looked as though the 50 and 200 day moving averages were about to make a bearish cross. I consequently put in a GTC (Good 'Til Cancelled) stop-limit order to cover the possible downside, which ended up being executed because of the $5 intraday price movement it had. Once everything was in the clear, I put in my limit order for $83 per share. I picked my two quibbles back up, and it closed at $83.98. Now, I would like nothing more than to see it break resistance and go to par ($100).
I still like CommScope (CTV), because they are involved with communications infrastructure. They acquired Andrews Wireless a few months ago, and the stock price has been in a downtrend ever since the internal costs of the acquisition were weighing down on the earnings. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens after they report earnings next week. During the past week or two, the stock has been putting in higher highs and higher lows, so I put in a GTC limit order for another quibble at about $40 per share. I had trimmed my shares back because of the downtrend.
I'm very excited about Hexcel (HXL), because they had a fantastic quarter. Now, it would be nice if both Airbus and Boeing would get their act together in getting into production with the A380 and the 787, respectively. I was very happy to see in their annual report that more and more portions of aircraft are being constructed out of composite materials. Also, in their Q1 conference call, they indicated that some aircraft are being retrofitted with composite replacement parts. My limit order is in for 1.5 quibbles at $22.50. I had a limit order in for $19.50, but I don't think I will get that now because of the earnings report.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
I was a little worried this past thursday morning when I was watching CNBC, because MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR) reported guidance of lower revenues for the coming quarter. Hence, the stock was down by around 11% at the open in the morning. Luckily, as it turns out, the decrease in revenues was simply due to a temporary shutdown of one of their production facilities. I took the opportunity to buy more shares, like I have been wanting to do fo quite some time, and the stock has since recovered the majority of that downside. My only concern for this company and the stock is the increasing development and production of thin-film solar cells. Silicon based PV cells still have over 90% of the market share of solar cells, but there is the possibility for that to change.
I recieved the annual report for Hexcel (HXL) in the mail yesterday. I thought it was interesting that composite materials have been increasingly being used in the construction of aircraft, and in larger proportions. In fact, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner will have about 50% of its' weight composed of composite materials, and similar proportions for the Airbus A380. I'm looking forward to the A380 and the 787 going into production, and hopefully that will be soon. Boeing and Airbus make up around 50% of the revenues for Hexcel.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Friday, March 21, 2008
In Ohio, you can buy a house for $150K.
In California, the average cost of a house is around $600K.
The rule of thumb for total wages in California in comparison to
places outside of state is that you earn twice as much in California. So, if you make $100K/yr. in California, the rule of thumb is that you would make $50K/yr. out of state.
So, even though you would only make half as much outside of California, houses only cost a quarter as much. So, in a sense, only making $50K/yr. out of state is virtually the same as making $100K/yr within California.
Just think of what the difference would be if you were able to buy the house outright out of state. The amount needed for a 20% downpayment for a house in California would do that for many places outside of California.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
I saw a TV show on a PBS channel by the author of the book, "Change Your Brain, Change Your Life". One of the things that he mentioned was the use of fish oil supplements for the health of your brain. He said that brain matter is essentially a lump of fatty tissues. I had already read from another source that fish oil (an omega-3 fatty acid) can be used as an aid to treat ADD/ADHD. Does the omega-3 fatty acid contribute to myelination?
I'm interested in as to if there is a possibility of brain cells and/or myelin being degraded from the prolonged release of adrenal cortisol (stress).
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Monday, March 10, 2008
I'm also aware of momentum stocks, but I'll point out Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) in regards to those. When they go wrong, they REALLY go wrong. I'm not a fan of momentum stocks.
Friday, March 7, 2008
It looks as though I might get my limit order for more MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR) filled. They are increasing capacity of their solar wafer production, and the demand for solar wafers will be good for quite some time.
I bought more Ultra Petroleum (UPL) recently, partially because they have been increasing production and the price of natural gas has been going up.
I'm cursing Boeing's name today, because it seems as though they might yet again delay the production of the 787. It is partially the cause of the drop of B/E Aerospace (BEAV). They will produce the jet sooner or later though.
I'll probobly get my limit order for Crystallex (KRY) filled before Hugo Chavez approves the mining permit.
I, along with others, would like to see the GDP stay in positive territory at the end of this month. It will be the final report for
the first quarter of the year, and would probobly ease fears of an immediate recession. The fact that the unemployment rate and the UICs both decreased is a good sign. Consumers are not losing their jobs. Inflation is on the rise, which it will be interesting to see what the Fed does with interest rates once the mortgage folly is worked off.
This is one of thos time periods that I don't like to go and look at my portfolio. ick.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
territory. Granted, it has been less than 1% this quarter, but it is still not negative. Although, in contrast to that, it was a little over 4% last quarter. It is my understanding, fom watching numerous economists and other market professionals (I like watching to see what the consensus is) that it takes time for all of the fed funds rate cuts and capital infusions to take effect and work their way through the economy. So, that being the case, there should be some growth in the domestic economy in the later half of this year. After that, I'm not taking my chances, unless the long-term outlook changes.
One of the things that I learned from reading numerous business and finance related articles is that the FOMC can only have one of two things happen in a recession, either house prices decrease or equity prices contract. They cannot and/or will not let both occur simultaneously. American consumers need to have an alternative source of income, which is usually one of those two things. The domestic economy is in a deflationary period, because house values are decreasing as much as they have (I have been looking for something that says how house values equate into the gross GDP).
I just noticed that there is buying action going on in the after-hours today. I'm not sure if that is short sellers covering, or if it is bargain hunters taking advantage of the sell-off today.
As the infamous Jim Cramer indicated not long ago, some of the banks have to fail and have some consolidation in the banking sector. It is on some of the business news now, so that appears to be in the works.
I'm still betting on the FOMC lowering the fed funds rate on the 18th of March, which could be a turn in the market.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Friday, February 29, 2008
I knew yesterday that the move on Crystallex was just hype, so I put in a stop limit order for it, which ended up selling some of my shares. I now have a limit order for it at the price that I bought it last time. I'm confident that it will get there, unless Hugo signs the permit before then.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
a Canadian miner that has been preparing the Las Cristinas gold mine in Venezuela for an extensive period of time now. From what I understand, they have everything in place and have all of the permits they need but one. That last permit is in the hands of none other than Hugo Chavez himself. There is quite a bit of support for the development and production of the gold mine, because of the economic impact of the mine due to the creation of jobs and inflow of revenues to the country. I also read something about the military pushing out illegal miners from a territory nearby, which is apparently a good sign. I think if there is a significant outcry from the people to open it, and when Hugo sees a good opportunity to score some political brownie points with it, then he will sign it.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Monday, February 18, 2008
years to develop:
Step 1: Close your eyes.
Step 2: Take a deep breath.
Step 3: Spin in place three times (more than that if you want to)
Step 4: Open your eyes.
Step 5: Wing it.
This process also works well in conjunction with the
eenie-meenie-mynie-moe method. Enjoy :-)
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Friday, February 15, 2008
helping me considerably lately:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Bollinger Bands
- Exponential Moving Average (use the 50 day average)
These indicators can be found on Yahoo! Finance's interactive charts.
These are playing a part in my quest to make a shift from being 100% investor to becoming 75% investor and 25% trader. It is just a simple matter of making an educated assessment of whether or not a stock is overbought/oversold, and having an idea as to what price to set my limit order(s) and my trailing stop limit orders at. It is an improvement on my buy/sell points.
I am still learning about analyzing share volume and the overall market. It is a matter of making it a point to persist in learning and improving as I go. In fact, my investigation of the OBV and CVI is still in progress.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Sunday, February 10, 2008
famous quote, which I think originated from the infamous Ben Graham:
"Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy"
If that is not the exact quote, it is at least close enough.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
What are the mechanics of foreclosures? How do they affect the overall economy?
Friday, February 8, 2008
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
I think Africa will be the next big labor market, to produce cheap products much like China has done for years. Their population is growing fast, and is relatively young. Their political issues need to be resolved first.
The only other solution that I can think of would be to move further inland in China. They do have the largest population in the world at the present time.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Thursday, January 31, 2008
people don't go to college.
Personally, I think that some people just don't have the opportunity
to go, for whatever the multitude of reasons could be. I think that
there are quite a few people out there that have the ability to do it.
To me, it seems as though you need four things:
Friday, January 25, 2008
relationship is and the mechanics are between the Fed Funds rate and
long-term mortgage rates?
I have some idea as to what the answer is, but I need to find
Economics & the stock market.
I consider myself to be an investor, and I think that pure traders are crazy. I at least wouldn't be a trader myself. I'm more of a fundamentals and macro-economic indicators kind of guy, but have been trying to find some reliable market breadth technical indicators. The CVI and the Advance/Decline indicators are very enticing, but only as a supplement to the fundamentals.
It takes quite a bit of time and energy to be a good investor and make any money at it.
One of the things that I do is look for reliable commentators and sources of information. The way I see it, it is virtually impossible to have a bead on every aspect of the market and economic events.
I have learned quite a bit and have improved at investing over the past few years:
before 2005 - I only had mutual funds, and didn't have much of a clue about stocks, and was actually a little afraid of them.
2005 - I had been toying with stocks, but still didn't have much direction and my picks were uncalculated and somewhat blatant. If I broke even, then I was very lucky to do so. I had discovered Jim Cramer and his "Mad Money" TV show, which I loved.
2006 - I had been watching Cramer for awhile and had learned to take him with a grain of salt, but some of his ideas were good and made sense to me. I bought Cramer's book also, which helped me out quite a bit. My picks started getting much better and more calculated. I at least broke even, if not made a little money.
2007 - I more or less stopped piggy-backing on Cramer, partially because I wanted to be able to get my own picks. I also discovered Dr. Stephen Leeb and his Market Forecasts, which I read religiously(www.completeinvestor.com). I made some money. Granted, it wasn't much, but I at least made some.
2008 - The DJIA dropping from 13,500 to around 12,000 hasn't helped me much so far this year.
I keep learning more and improving as I go.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
It would be virtually the same concept as a P/E ratio of a stock.