Thursday, March 6, 2008

Taking Stock

I'll also add that the GDP growth rate has yet to go into negative
territory. Granted, it has been less than 1% this quarter, but it is still not negative. Although, in contrast to that, it was a little over 4% last quarter. It is my understanding, fom watching numerous economists and other market professionals (I like watching to see what the consensus is) that it takes time for all of the fed funds rate cuts and capital infusions to take effect and work their way through the economy. So, that being the case, there should be some growth in the domestic economy in the later half of this year. After that, I'm not taking my chances, unless the long-term outlook changes.

One of the things that I learned from reading numerous business and finance related articles is that the FOMC can only have one of two things happen in a recession, either house prices decrease or equity prices contract. They cannot and/or will not let both occur simultaneously. American consumers need to have an alternative source of income, which is usually one of those two things. The domestic economy is in a deflationary period, because house values are decreasing as much as they have (I have been looking for something that says how house values equate into the gross GDP).

I just noticed that there is buying action going on in the after-hours today. I'm not sure if that is short sellers covering, or if it is bargain hunters taking advantage of the sell-off today.

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