Saturday, July 19, 2008

Taking Stock: Market Outlook

It appears to me as though the overall market could turn around from
here, for multiple reasons:

1. The price of oil has been falling
2. Some of the banks have been stabilizing, such as US Bancorp and
Wells-Fargo reporting good earnings, along with Citigroup
3. IndyMac was taken over by the FDIC (another stabilized bank)
4. The mortgage industry appears to be getting some of their issues
worked out, such as Fannie and Freddie being rescued (roughly 50% of
the mortgage industry)
5. Pending home sales, existing home sales, housing starts, and
building permits have all been rising, along with the mortgage
percentage rate
6. Housing affordabilty is very high now, but housing prices could
still fall a little more.
7. The interest rate cuts by the FOMC should be working their way
through the economy and the banking system.

I'm interested in seeing what the US GDP will do this quarter. The
unemployment rate has not been incredibly high, but it would be nice
to see it come back down. Unemployment insurance claims have come back
below the 400K mark, which is good.

I'm looking forward to earnings season this quarter.

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