Thursday, January 8, 2009

Taking Stock: Pretty Picture!

I found a very pretty picture today. The trend line for one of the commodity indexes has been broken!

I also did some re-allocation of my positions:
-Sold Axsys Technologies (AXYS) at $50/share, because it may very well break down from here, and The Obama-nator has been talking about making defense cuts.

-bought some more Dryships (DRYS) @$12.50/share

-put in a limit order to re-start my position in B/E Aerospace (BEAV) @ $10/share, even though I wanted to get it at $5. It looks as though it will go higher. The 52-week high for BEAV is upwards of $50/share. Do the math.

-going to put in a limit order for Commscope (CTV) also, but have to determine a price. I had sold it last year up ~$30 or so per share.

-looking to take the cash that I salvaged from Axsys and re-allocate it to Bucyrus (BUCY) and Hexcel (HXL).

I am very happy to see that NovaGold (NG) managed to get their bridge loan approved, and now have a $60M investment from a private equity group. They have also extended their loan to $75M, so I am looking for NovaGold to move higher from here.

The infamous Crystallex (KRY) rallied handsomely recently, which I think is partially due to Rusoro having put in an all-stock bid for Gold Reserve (GRZ). At present, it looks as though Crystallex will start to move higher also. Normally, Hugo Chavez and his governmental cohorts only require 15% of the gold from a mine, but I think he and his gang will end up requiring 50% of the gold from Las Cristinas.

The Metals & Mining stocks, along with other commodities stocks, tend to trend along with the CRB/CCI. Inflation will more than likely become prominent before long, which will be beneficiary to commodities. I still think the Dollar will go lower sooner or later, which contributes to inflation. I'm also still sticking with my strategy of a little sector rotation, and cycling some funds from my precious metals positions to my energy positions, which have yet to start to trend higher. I think energy has bottomed, which is supported by multiple information sorces (Leeb, Fitzpatrick, and even Cramer), and can also be seen in the price of gasoline at the pump lately. Remember when gasoline went from ~$4.00/gal. down to ~$1.75/gal. in a short period of time? Well, it is currently back to ~$1.90/gal.

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