Taking Stock: Looks Good

The CVI looks great, and some of my old positions are in a new uptrend. Just from the looks of the CVI (possibly somewhat of a limited perspective), this rally might be just as strong as the last one. That bodes well for me and my long-term future plans. I took a few steps forward in the rally that started at the beginning of March, and would like nothing more than to do the same in this rally. The Dollar Index (DXY0) finally broke support, and is falling. When the Dollar falls, the price of oil and other commodities usually rises. From looking at the Light Sweet Crude Oil Index (XOIL), the price of oil is likely to continue going higher (just likely, not guaranteed).

I also read a bullish report ("Marder on the Markets") written by Kevin Marder, an associate of Gil Morales.

Something that Dr. Stephen Leeb has been calling for recently is another market crash before the end of this year. Of course, I can't say that he will be right, and I won't say that he is wrong, but I will definitely keep that thought in mind and keep an eye out for it. Apparently the forecast is due to a quantitative model, orchestrated and done by himself and some mathematicians from Yale.

I had a thought recently about the possibility of some of what is called "irrational exhuberance" in the market, which usually occurs at or very near the peak of a market top. This is a crisis inclusive of the financial system and credit market, and is said to be the worst recession in roughly seventy years. I was thinking about the possibility in conjunction with what Dr. Leeb was mentioning in his market update, in relation to the price of oil rising so quickly and his comments about the forthcoming of a market crash later this year. It makes sense to me, with that in mind. Although, the market is still at least far below what the all-time market highs were. I can't help but think of all of those trillions of dollars that the goverment has conjured together. How much have they spent so far, and how much of it has been going into Treasuries? The sort of "rule of thumb" is that money comes out of the bond market and into equities\stocks, and visa-versa.