Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Taking Stock:

Just a handful of mild things going on today. Everyone is waiting for the FOMC to finish their meeting and present the results, which will be tomorrow. I seriously doubt that they will raise interest rates, but that is virtually a given. What would happen to if everyones mortgage rates were to increase in the short-term? Second, the dollar index has been rising the past few sessions, but is down just a touch today. It is likely to drop tomorrow, and even the long-term trend is still down. How is it that the dollar value could rise, considering the percentage that the government has increased the money supply by in the past few months in order to avert the financial crisis? Also, the S&P-500 will likely pull back to the 20DMA (the neat-o little red line) before advancing again, much like it did in the previous rally.

The rally is likely to continue, for two reasons:
1.) The dollar will more than likely continue to drop
2.) The Fed is highly unlikely to raise interest rates

Anothet thing worth noting is that there have been some IPOs filed. IPOs will usually not go through in a bad\bear market.

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